Talk:Emerald Dragon/@comment-5067621-20120525233329

Hi all. This is a repost from previous page. Let's do a little statistics to estimate the chance of getting this emerald dragon. Please respond (only ONCE for each of the emerald's you get) to the following survey. Once we get a large enough samples, we can estimate the chance of getting one in BC/EBI separately.

a. 1-5 tries in NBC

b. 6-10 tries in NBC

c. 11-15 tries in NBC

d. 16-20 tries in NBC

e. 21+ tries in NBC before getting one, or still don't have one

f. 1-5 tries in EBI

g. 6-10 tries in EBI

h. 11-15 tries in EBI

i. 16-20 tries in EBI

j. 21+ tries in EBI before getting one, or still don't have one

The estimation based on the first 28 valid responses so far:

'''In BC: 15% get an emerald after 1-5 tries, 11% need 6-10 tries, 7% need 11-15 tries, 7% need 16-20 tries, %60 need 21+ tries. Assuming the unluckiest will get it after 50 tries based on their percentage, you'll need to try about 33 times.'''

'''In EBI: 21% get an emerald after 1-5 tries, %3 need 6-10 tries, %21 need 16-20 tries, %55 need 21+ tries. Assuming the unluckiest will get it after 44 tries based on their percentage, you'll need to try about 29 times.'''

We need a large enough samples to be accurate. So far the results are good enough to indicate using EBI has a slightly better chance. Thanks