Talk:Game Updates/@comment-216.52.119.186-20120605200259/@comment-4756055-20120605204952

IMO, you're over-analyzing. I don't think the underlying logic is that complex. It seems to be a mixture of the type of dragon (does its type match the event type?), its level (higher is better), and a dose of of luck. Elemental dragons that match the event type seem to do better on the whole than hybrids, although you might get a better luck with a level 15 hybrid than a level 10 elemental.