Talk:Aquamarine Dragon/@comment-71.163.82.35-20130309104030/@comment-218.215.3.183-20130309201449

You don't understand probability. You have roughly a 1 in 30 chance of getting an aquamarine each time you breed river and iceberg. That does NOT mean that you will get one every thirty breeds. It means that after 500 failed attempts, you still have the same 1 in 30 chance of getting one. These are not good odds.

Statistically speaking, over millions of attempts, I would expect to see success about 3.5% of the time, but I would not expect to see the same success rate in any group of 30, or for that matter, 300 attmmpts. Some sets of 30 will have none. Some will have many.