Talk:Diamond Dragon/@comment-12394059-20130430164944/@comment-5786363-20130430223048

Probabiliy always, and only, ever works on a Per Instance Basis. If you have a Probability of 3.5% you're chances do not imporve over Time or Instances. The Lord Of Sun And Shadow is completely correct on this.

You could try 5000 times with a Probability Rate of 3.5% and get 0 Instances because you're chances are always 3.5%

Statistics, on the other hand, factor in Instances Over Time - given a large enough sample field on a long enough time line you should get 3.5 Successes for every 100 Attempts. However, Statistics only hold for the entire Sample Field - you cannot take any given 100 attempts and expect 3.5 successes. You can only take all known attempts across the entire period and come out with an average.

Given that reality and difference in measurement - your Statistical Sample may actually vary from a known Proability Of Success (i.e. your sample source may end up not creating a perfect expected bell curve). It could be that across all users over the month of April there were 10,000 attempts made (each with a 3.5% chance of success) and a Statistical reality of 15% of all attempts succeeded (give you a 15% Success Rate Statistically).

Mathematically, the larger the sample size the closer the Statistical Rate and Probability Rate will become.