Talk:Game Updates/@comment-26481920-20180920174427/@comment-6613158-20180921072025

Sometimes a more graphic example explains a statistical question a bit better. Sometimes, he said…

Imagine a box with 1,000 balls. 500 red, 500 blue. Anytime you breed a specific pair of parents a hand goes into this box and picks one ball at random. If it’s blue you get hybrid dragon HD1, if it’s red you get hybrid dragon HD2.

An epic is introduced as a possible result of said pair of parents. One red ball is removed from the box and a yellow one is substituted for it.

You breed this pair. The hand goes into the box. Blue = HD1, red = HD2, yellow = epic dragon ED1.

A second epic is introduced as a possible result of these parents. One blue ball is removed and a green ball is substituted for it.

You breed this pair. The hand goes into the box. Blue = HD1, red = HD2, yellow = ED1, green = epic dragon ED2.

I suppose you get the general idea.

Different colored balls can be added for quite a while before all the blues and reds have been taken out. And until a very long time you will not, or hardly not, notice that the chance of getting an HD1 or an HD2 has decreased. And even if you did, you probably wouldn’t care, for these are not what you’re after at the time.

What does change significantly, at least outside the Rift, is, of course, the breeding time for these epic fails. Having two 48+ hour fails in a row, when trying for a dragon who’s ball is only in the box for a week, is a bit annoying.

Oh, and just in case… “At random” means that neither the hand picking the ball, nor the balls themselves have any recollection of what color ball has been picked before. Or how often any color has been picked already when breeding a specific pair of parents over and over again. Once picked the balls are returned to the box, the box is thoroughly shaken and patiently awaits the coming of the hand.