Talk:Game Updates/@comment-4756055-20140530000752/@comment-6613158-20140601132348

 Sheenalinda: What is calculated is indeed nothing but the lowest* average fail time. Often the introduction of a third (or fourth) element, while increasing the number of different fails, decreases the average fail time. Take Arctic for example. Using just Earth and Cold gives just two results aside from Arctic: Glacier and Mountain. Fail time: 10 and 14 hours (not upgraded) or 12 hours average. Introducing Water into the equation adds four additional fails (Mud, Ice, Iceberg and River), but decreases the average fail time to 9.8 hours. Adding even more elements can decrease the average fail time to 9.1 hours. *But the Sandbox dislikes combinations with 60-hour fails.

 Of course the assumption is that the chance of getting any rare dragon is always exactly the same if at least the required elements are present. So it is best to maximize the number of tries, rather than to minimize the number of fails.

 And while I have serious doubts about some of the quoted percentages, I have absolutely no reason to doubt the correctness of the aforementioned assumption. So I am of like minds with Cheyser as far as this is concerned.

 Oh, and as to the original poster: Dream has, according to the Sandbox, the same chance as Double Rainbow does. And while statistics are what they are, most of us will have to entertain a bit of patience before we will get one.