Talk:Emerald Dragon/@comment-5067621-20120529200259

I did a survey over the weekend to estimate the chance of getting an emerald. Based on 48 responses, here're the results:

In BC: 19% get it after 1-5 tries, 7% need 6-10 tries, 9% need 11-15 tries, 5% need 16-20 tries, 60% need 21+ tries. Assuming people in the last group need up to 50 tries based on their percentage with a mean of 36 tries, the average is 25 tries (or 4% chance per breeding) to get one.

In EBI: 19% get it after 1-5 tries, 9% need 6-10 tries, 8% need 11-15 tries, 11% need 16-20 tries, 53% need 21+ tries. Assuming people in the last group need up to 43 tries based on their percentage with a mean of 32 tries, the average is 21 tries (or 5% chance per breeding) to get one.

BTW, I just got my first 31h breeding time on the 32nd try in BC ;-).