Talk:Equinox Dragon/@comment-5535056-20120921175742

Sounds like this will be a hard one to get. Based on current guesses at the breeding sandbox site, odds are about 5.25% on the island and 3.5% in the cave. If you manage to breed every eight hours for the week (for 21 chances at each location), that means that you'll have better than a two thirds chance of getting one. Turn that around, though, and more than one quarter of people who are this (incredibly) dedicated to breeding won't get one.

Calculation based on:

% on island: 5.25%

% in cave: 3.5%

odds of not getting one: (1-0.0525)**21*(1-0.035)**21 = .285 (about 2/7)