Talk:Jade Dragon/@comment-70.58.10.225-20130519071130/@comment-5829076-20130519082038

@ Anon#6 (5th reply):

I was wary and concerned about that aspect too, and we briefly discussed during testing and this is what a user name Bufkey had to say:

''It's roughly estimated that you need to try twice the number of expected number of tries to get one, to be 80-90% sure if the combo is correct.

For example, if the probability to get a gem dragon is 7% then it is expected to try (100/7)=14.3 times to get one. If you try 29 times (about twice the expected value of 14.3) and still don't get one, the chance for this to happen using a correct combo is (93/100)^29 = 12.2%. In other words, if you try a combo 29 times and still don't get it, it's 87.8% that the combo is wrong.

If Jade has the same 7% probability as other gem dragons, then 30 tries without success can give roughly 90% confidence that the combo is wrong, or 43 tries (3 times of expected value of 14.3) without success gives 95.6% confidence that the combo is wrong. Sorry if I sound too confusing.''

And FYI, the number of attempt for each combination is approxiately 50+.