Talk:Opal Dragon/@comment-5095719-20121003192554

Opals more or less should be a little easier to obtain this month as compared to the Sapphires last month due to their shorter weighted average fail time of 8.04 (6.43 if upgraded) hours as contrasted to last month’s 9.02 (7.21 if upgraded) hours. Analysis based upon the Sandbox simulator results of 1000 tries and exclude the target gem dragons.

In a month most players that play twice a day and breed in the cave and island can have about 120 attempts at getting a gem dragon (morning & evening [2] X cave & island [2] X [30] days) in any month without using any gems. On average (7% on the island and 3.5% in the cave or 5% overall) most players should get about 6 gem dragons a month. However, I have not heard of anyone getting those kinds of results; so there must be some other factors in play that have not been published.

I have read several months of Wiki comments about people having success and others not having success and when coupled along with when those statements have been made and my own experience; I suggest that there are times when BFS is in fact changing the odds. At the very end of the month and at the beginning of the month BFS is kind to the community. If it were purely random BFS would not have us tethered to their servers for breeding pairings and tended results.

Even if the results are purely random the 1:20 success ratio is going to leave some regular players without their favorite dragon. Last month’s results for example would seem to indicate a lot of players missed at least one of the limited dragons. I missed an Equinox in one of my 3 game center ids. And so far this month I have 2 opals in one GCid, 1 in my 2nd GCid, and 0 in my third GCid (which is also where I missed the Equinox). I have feed that 3rd GCid about 60 gems so far trying for the Opal and dropped over a 100 last month.