Talk:Topaz Dragon/@comment-174.48.140.14-20121102003613/@comment-4775325-20121102030326

We know the basic odds, but it's impossible to tell on an individual basis how it'll work out because it's still down to random chance.

The odds in the normal breeding cave (based on testing) is around 3.5% that means that on average people should get it within ~30 tries, however there will always be people who are very lucky and get it within their first few tries and those who are very unlucky who could take 100+ tries.