Talk:Opal Dragon/@comment-5095719-20121003192554/@comment-5483769-20121003201900

I agree with your observations. The gems, and maybe some of the limited dragons also, seem to be easier to get on the first day of release, and then again in the last few hours, with lower odds in between. It makes sense from a marketing point of view for BFS. At the beginning a good strike rate guarantees the forums will be full of people boasting about how they got it first try and 'it's so easy', goading others into buying gems to keep up. At the end, the forums are filled with people lamenting that they don't have it yet, so a bunch of posts about success again entices increased gem buying. Nothing wrong with that - it's clever marketing, but it does suggest that BFS keeps a closer eye on the game than just launching new dragons into the world and then moving on to the design of the next one. Good luck to them, it's a great game.

Maybe the master number crunchers like Robotr0n and the other major test game players in the external forum could run their probability tests in the middle and end of the month to see if the results differ from those first heady days of combo discovery.